It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic rep...
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
When camping here at Yosemite National Park*, you quickly realize that there is one basic product here that has never changed: nature. Mortgage produc...
The bond market--which dictates interest rates--had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn...
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
Not all, but many, capital markets folks spent their college years rolling up their sleeves. Some not so much. When originators are asked about intere...
Wednesday brought a full schedule of events and data for the bond market to digest and bonds dictate day to day changes in mortgage rates. The mornin...
“I named my dog ‘5 Miles’ so I can tell people I walk 5 Miles every day.” This morning, I head to Yosemite National Park for some camping, hiking, and...
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may...
Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan ap...
A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons. A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context a...
Home price increases continued to accelerate in February even as interest rates also moved higher. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the...
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement...
Don’t believe in climate change, rising sea levels, or cities sinking (“subsiding”)? Venice is sinking. So are Rotterdam, Bangkok, and New York (thoug...
Mortgage rates didn't change much at all over the weekend with the average lender still in the highest territory since November. The average conventi...
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates...
“I accidentally rubbed ketchup in my eyes. Now I have Heinzsight.” In terms of foresight, looking ahead, there are some interesting things going on ou...
As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as...
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reco...
There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residen...
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed's favorite...
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a ...
I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund pass...
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement th...
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow ra...
Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next l...
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell back for the first time in...
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. To...
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Existing home sales posted strong gains in February while sales of new homes slipped slightly. In March each category switched directions. The U.S. Ce...
“The next time you dislike your life, remember it’s all about perspective. I know someone who reads 2-3 books a week, works out twice a day, has no fi...
Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to c...
When I was a kid, whenever I would walk by a pay phone or newspaper vending machine, I’d check the coin change slot. Or periodically check under my Da...
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has e...
It is “Take Your Child to Work Day” next Thursday which, if you work from home, is probably like a day off from school for the tyke. (I won’t be bring...
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between I...
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction to NFP coming in at 175k vs 243k or a bit too much of a rally relative to the motivation, no one co...