If it feels like we've been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today's inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today ...
Builders’ confidence in the new home market retreated this month , the first decline since last November. The National Association of Home Builders (N...
Misconceptions and misunderstandings… Capital markets folks at the MBA conference next week should know that The Naked Cowboy in Times Square is not r...
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Lower interest rates gave a lift to refinancing activity for the second week but failed to do the same for those financing home purchases. The Mortgag...
We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official ...
Attendees are gearing up for the upcoming MBA Secondary Conference in Manhattan. Basketball fans know it as the home of Madison Square Garden and are ...
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Last Thursday, mortgage rates merely had to hold steady in order to hit 1-month lows. In other words, Wednesday's rates were low enough to earn that ...
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Ahead of the upcoming MBA conference in Manhattan, as a reminder, we have five senses. All of them are important, with perhaps smell being the most un...
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, b...
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
On a flight yesterday I had a choice of movies and, knowing nothing about it, chose “The Beekeeper,” filled with severed fingers and broken glass bein...
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make t...
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jo...
Yesterday, we took a look at the recent winning streak for mortgage rates. Specifically, they had moved lower for 5 straight days--a feat only achiev...
One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given aucti...
After a very long travel day filled with odd, time-sucking delays, when I arrived in Birmingham I was happy to hear Alabama on the Uber car’s radio si...
Lower interest rates allowed mortgage activity to rise modestly during the week ended May 3. It was the first increase in three weeks. The Mortgage Ba...
There have been 3 winning streaks for mortgage rates in 2024 where the average rate has moved lower for at least 5 days and where the conventional 30y...
Lynyrd Skynyrd sang, “Sweet home, Alabama, where the skies are so blue…” Through the wonders of airship transportation, today I’m off to Alabama. The ...
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spe...
Mortgage rates did well last week, making it almost halfway back to the lower levels seen on April 9th. Why focus on April 9th? That was the last da...
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the a...
Think your job has its ups and downs… How’d you like to be a lipstick tester? (You should see the rest of him!) For me it is off to Birmingham tomorro...
It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic rep...
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
When camping here at Yosemite National Park*, you quickly realize that there is one basic product here that has never changed: nature. Mortgage produc...
The bond market--which dictates interest rates--had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn...
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
Not all, but many, capital markets folks spent their college years rolling up their sleeves. Some not so much. When originators are asked about intere...
Wednesday brought a full schedule of events and data for the bond market to digest and bonds dictate day to day changes in mortgage rates. The mornin...
“I named my dog ‘5 Miles’ so I can tell people I walk 5 Miles every day.” This morning, I head to Yosemite National Park for some camping, hiking, and...
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may...
Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan ap...
A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons. A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context a...
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations of 0.3% month over month at the core level. That's a far cry from the 0.17% needed to sustain ...